I thought it would be interesting to plot a chart of Intel vs AMD stock price since the launch of Penryn on 11/12/2007 and 1/9/2008 (today).
Source: Google Finance
What a disaster! AMD's stock value has dropped 55.29% whereas Intel has dropped but only 9.53% during the same period! Let's remind ourselves about some events that have occurred since November 12 which may help explain the chart.
- Most reviews of Penryn have been overwhelmingly positive.
- Intel stock reached a 1 year high of $27.99 in December, 2007.
- Barcelona and Phenom have not ramped to expectations. Numerous problems appear to be plaguing AMD with no apparent relief in sight.
- SmartMoney/CNBC's Jim Cramer put Hector Ruiz on his " CEO Wall of Shame"
- Private issuance to Mubadala Development Company of 49 Million newly minted AMD shares ($12.70 per share as of 11/15/2007), netting AMD $608 Million. As of January 10, 2008's market close, AMD's shares were worth $5.53 each, resulting in a 56.46% loss in value to Mubadala. Ouch!
- AMD announced that its ATI acquisition would be impaired
- The AMD December Financial Analyst Day did not seem to convince the sell-side analysts that AMD would get out of its rut soon. It didn't help that Hector Ruiz has torqued analysts with comments like "I don't know what kind of Kool-Aid some analysts drink" and "I don't give a damn about short-sighted analysts and investors."
- The Consumer Electronics Show 2008 (CES) kicked off in Las Vegas
Of course, I could also throw in
- Britney Spears was taken into Cedars on a "5150 hold" and lost custody of her children
Next week will turn out to be interesting. In addition to being the week of Macworld Conference & Expo, it is also Q4 2007 earnings reporting week for both Intel and AMD. By most accounts, Intel is expected to have a blowout quarter. Everyone expects AMD to report a loss but the big question is "how much?" The street will closely listen to the Q1 forward looking earnings guidance for a seasonal drop from Q1 or above seasonal which would bode well for Intel but could bode either way for AMD.